_ On 1/9/2012 I wrote in http://www.jpost.com/Magazine/Opinion/Article.aspx?id=252675) that Iran would launch a Pearl Harbor type “surprise” attack on the US navy in the Persian Gulf, and that attack would serve as a justification and a pretext for a retaliatory move by the US military against the Iranian regime.
I was amazed to see the numerous (practically viral) editorials and blogs that cited this part of my article, claiming that the use of quotes around the word: “surprise” carried the implication that the US would manufacture an “incident” (I am using quotes again) where the Iranians would appear to have initiated an attack on a US warship, except, the US would initiate a provocation, inviting that attack.
No! I did not try to convey the above interpretation. You guys were all wrong!
The Iranian regime is stuck in a macho syndrome. It blinds their rational reasoning; it prevents the Mullahs from breaking off their quest for nuclear weapons even in the face of severe sanctions. The regime’s rhetoric has raised the temperature in Persian Gulf by having the Revolutionary Guards issue multiple threats against the US and its allies. Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz; they would not allow US carriers to re-enter the Gulf; they would continue to develop their nuclear capability—all pose crossings of red lines, inviting a massive retaliation by the US.
The latest incident in the Gulf where Iranian gunboats approached an American ship without having any shots fired is a first in a series of non-violent close encounters. The Iranians are playing a dangerous game. They are experts in setting up deceptive mirages, conditioning American misconceptions with regard to the Ayatollah’s true intentions.
The Iranians will continue approaching American ships, then seem to blink by shifting direction, moving away, until the Americans learn the fake drill, letting down their guard. Then and only then, the Iranians will be able to draw near—sufficiently close for a deadly strike on a key American warship.
American warships presence in the Persian Gulf is the only “provocation” required for the Iranian Mullahs to feel provoked. They have already confirmed that assertion. There is no need for a conspiracy on the part of the US. American military presence or Israel’s existence are sufficiently provocative in the eyes of these bullies.
Some people say that the Iranians are not crazy enough to start a war on the US. I disagree. The Iranians will miscalculate. They do not believe that the US would retaliate by initiating an all-out-war in response. They view the US and President Obama as paper tigers. The Ayatollah will repeat the same mistake that Hezbollah had committed in 2006 when they kidnapped dead Israeli soldiers before Israel responded with an all-out-war they had not anticipated and had not wished for.
In today’s world where proportionate responses to aggression rule the roost of the politically correct universe, the Iranians will expect a limited American response, confined to local retaliation and accompanied by loud rhetoric from political opportunists. They will not anticipate the actual reaction because they will not understand the boiling rage they have been affecting in the US since the hostage crisis in the 1970’s. They will not understand the determination of the American government to see to it that the Persian Gulf does not fall under their control. They will fail to realize that their big-headed quest for nuclear weapons is a bloody red line that a president on the verge of elections may not be able to overlook.
My prediction in my previous article: “2012 will see to a new war. This time, Iran will initiate it” is NOT a wishful thinking; it is a logical inference of an unpleasant reality where the Iranian regime will be successful in bringing about its own demise due to its own miscalculation.
_ Watching the New Year Sunday Talk Shows on US TV, the experts were all of the opinion that neither the US nor Israel will embark on attacking the Iranian nuclear facilities in 2012. I tend to agree. Neither the US nor Israel will initiate an attack on Iran. Still, I believe that these experts were off by a million miles.
Iran, just like Nazi Germany in the 1940’s, will take the initiative and “help” the US president and the American public make up their mind by making the first move, by attacking a US aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf, trying to sink it.
The Iranian attack on an American ship will serve as a justification and a pretext for a retaliatory move by the US military against the Iranian regime. The target at that time would not be Iran’s nuclear facilities. These would turn out to be an addendum. The US would retaliate by attacking Iran’s navy, their military installations, missile silos, airfields. The US would target Iran’s ability to retaliate, to close down the straits of Hormuz. The US would then follow by targeting the regime itself.
Elimination of Iran’s nuclear facilities? Yes. This part would turn out to be the final act, the grand prize. It might have been the major target had the US initiated the attack. However under this “Pearl Harbor” scenario, where Iran had launched a “surprise” attack on the US navy, the US would have the perfect rationalization to get it done right, to put an end to this ugly game.
Unlike the latest Iranian people’s attempt at revolution, this time the US would not stay away, rather, it would go public, openly calling for the Iranian people to join in with the US in working to overthrow the corrupt Islamic fundamentalist regime. And the Iranian people would respond in numbers.
Spring would reemerge, and the Iranian people would join the rest of the Middle East—this time with the direct support of the US.
The greatest irony behind this most significant episode in 2012 is that the Iranian regime would effect their own demise. Attacking the US navy in the open seas is equivalent to carrying out a suicide bombing.
The Iranian government has become bolder by the day. Their hubris has been mounting as a result of the world’s inability to bring to an end their quest for nuclear weapons. If the Revolutionary Guards achieve that final step, and demonstrate their nuclear capability, their bullying conduct would swell beyond their geographic region. It would grow to be catastrophic. The responsible world understands that the Ayatollah must be stopped, but the US, the EU, Israel are in no mood to instigate a military confrontation for fear of its negative economic impact due to a potential closing of the straits of Hormuz and one more bloody war engulfing Israel and its neighbors.
Iran’s mullahs understand the world’s anxiety and its lack of resolve when it comes to confront them militarily. The Iranian government is blinded by its own ability to intimidate, to call the shots, to ignore warnings. What the Iranians fail to realize is that some of the lines they are about to cross are red—bloody red.
2012 will see to a new war. This time, Iran will initiate it. This time the US will respond. This time the Iranian regime will bring about its own demise. This time the Iranian Spring will bear fruits.
This time the Iranian nuclear cloud will evaporate before it rains down on the infidels.