The incoming elections in the US and the flashy rhetoric by Republican presidential candidates have stirred the question of nuclear Iran into the front page. The Muslim Gulf states and Israel have added to the rumbling; they have sustained their pressure on the US administration, urging it to act, to stop Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons. The Obama Administration has warned Iran: “pursuit of nuclear weapons is unacceptable; the US would use all means in its disposal, including force if necessary, to neutralize Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.” But to no avail.
Still, Iran keeps its macho talk loud and condescending. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has just issued a warning—Iran will not cave in to pressure; progress toward a nuclear bomb (he did not say “nuclear bomb”, but he definitely implied it) will not be brought to an end, no matter what sanctions the Americans or the EU impose on the Islamic Republic.
The Ayatollah is serious. Although macho talk in the Islamic Middle East is a standard adopted by all militant Islamic leaders, the Iranian government is flexing its muscles, flaunting its sharp teeth. It believes that economic sanctions will hurt, but not as much as caving in to American demands. In a culture where false honor precedes anything that moves under the sun, where life without “honor” is far worse than death, where honor killing is a religious diktat, caving in to economic sanctions is equivalent to an unconditional surrender. And surrendering to the “Great Satan” merely because life is a little tough is inexcusable, dishonorable behavior; it is treason that merits the death sentence.
The loud rhetoric from all sides has been underlined by considerable measures on the ground. The US has been and is about to keep on amassing a war machine in the Persian Gulf and on several islands within reach of Iran. American, British and French warships and aircraft have been acting around the Persian Gulf and around Saudi air bases respectively, while the Saudis have reinforced their anti-missile defense gear and their delivery facilities around Saudi oil fields and along the Persian Gulf respectively.
Israel has been readying itself for war on all fronts. It has recently conducted large-scale military exercises, both defensive and offensive in nature, including the drafting of reservists under projected heavy missile bombardment of every town, road and base, as well as a large scale parachuting by over a thousand paratroopers, signaling a willingness to engage ground-troops on foreign soil in addition to relying on its air force and its rockets.
Iran has not been sitting idle either. They have announced the start of a three-week exercise in southern Iran and the Strait of Hormuz under war settings. They seem to brace for a noteworthy retaliation with the objective of blocking the flow of oil out of the Gulf. In addition, they have been concocting terror attacks on soft Jewish and possibly other civilian targets throughout the world.
The American Administration is working hard at softening its seeming aim by masking its military buildup with wishful talking points. US Defense Secretary Panetta’s recent implications concerning Israel’s imminent attack plans are part of a grand-scale deception strategy. They have been designed to refocus the Iranians on the most suspicious front rather than the one that would deliver the ultimate blow—the US military. It is obvious that if Israel embarks on a preemptive strike on the Iranian nuclear project, Iran will try to retaliate. Retaliation will not be limited to hitting Israel. The Revolutionary Guards will attempt to attack American interests throughout the Middle East, thus provide a pretext for an American involvement in a large scale “defensive” war against Iran—a war that would be supported by the American public due to its defensive nature, a war that would boost Obama’s standing in the eyes of the American people, shortly ahead of the elections.
The scenario above may not necessitate an Israeli opening (of hostilities) since the Iranian regime is stuck in a macho syndrome, which blinds their rational reasoning. They will miscalculate. They may initiate hostilities against US interests in the Persian Gulf in order to lay bare the risk associated with any American attempt to force them into submission by aggressive economic means. They do not believe that the US would retaliate by initiating an all-out-war in response. They view the US and President Obama as paper tigers. The Ayatollah will repeat the same mistake that Hezbollah had committed in 2006 when they kidnapped dead Israeli soldiers before Israel responded with an all-out-war they had not anticipated and had not wished for.
There is little doubt that a war with Iran can be avoided. There is high likelihood that the US will lead the effort even if Israel initiates the campaign. There is little doubt that the US is hard at work preparing for war in the Persian Gulf. There is high likelihood that Iran will provide the American people with a sizzling justification by provoking the US and invite a massive retaliation.
There is no doubt. 2012 will see to a new Gulf war. This time, the Ayatollah will be the one to pay the price.
_ On 1/9/2012 I wrote in http://www.jpost.com/Magazine/Opinion/Article.aspx?id=252675) that Iran would launch a Pearl Harbor type “surprise” attack on the US navy in the Persian Gulf, and that attack would serve as a justification and a pretext for a retaliatory move by the US military against the Iranian regime.
I was amazed to see the numerous (practically viral) editorials and blogs that cited this part of my article, claiming that the use of quotes around the word: “surprise” carried the implication that the US would manufacture an “incident” (I am using quotes again) where the Iranians would appear to have initiated an attack on a US warship, except, the US would initiate a provocation, inviting that attack.
No! I did not try to convey the above interpretation. You guys were all wrong!
The Iranian regime is stuck in a macho syndrome. It blinds their rational reasoning; it prevents the Mullahs from breaking off their quest for nuclear weapons even in the face of severe sanctions. The regime’s rhetoric has raised the temperature in Persian Gulf by having the Revolutionary Guards issue multiple threats against the US and its allies. Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz; they would not allow US carriers to re-enter the Gulf; they would continue to develop their nuclear capability—all pose crossings of red lines, inviting a massive retaliation by the US.
The latest incident in the Gulf where Iranian gunboats approached an American ship without having any shots fired is a first in a series of non-violent close encounters. The Iranians are playing a dangerous game. They are experts in setting up deceptive mirages, conditioning American misconceptions with regard to the Ayatollah’s true intentions.
The Iranians will continue approaching American ships, then seem to blink by shifting direction, moving away, until the Americans learn the fake drill, letting down their guard. Then and only then, the Iranians will be able to draw near—sufficiently close for a deadly strike on a key American warship.
American warships presence in the Persian Gulf is the only “provocation” required for the Iranian Mullahs to feel provoked. They have already confirmed that assertion. There is no need for a conspiracy on the part of the US. American military presence or Israel’s existence are sufficiently provocative in the eyes of these bullies.
Some people say that the Iranians are not crazy enough to start a war on the US. I disagree. The Iranians will miscalculate. They do not believe that the US would retaliate by initiating an all-out-war in response. They view the US and President Obama as paper tigers. The Ayatollah will repeat the same mistake that Hezbollah had committed in 2006 when they kidnapped dead Israeli soldiers before Israel responded with an all-out-war they had not anticipated and had not wished for.
In today’s world where proportionate responses to aggression rule the roost of the politically correct universe, the Iranians will expect a limited American response, confined to local retaliation and accompanied by loud rhetoric from political opportunists. They will not anticipate the actual reaction because they will not understand the boiling rage they have been affecting in the US since the hostage crisis in the 1970’s. They will not understand the determination of the American government to see to it that the Persian Gulf does not fall under their control. They will fail to realize that their big-headed quest for nuclear weapons is a bloody red line that a president on the verge of elections may not be able to overlook.
My prediction in my previous article: “2012 will see to a new war. This time, Iran will initiate it” is NOT a wishful thinking; it is a logical inference of an unpleasant reality where the Iranian regime will be successful in bringing about its own demise due to its own miscalculation.
_ Watching the New Year Sunday Talk Shows on US TV, the experts were all of the opinion that neither the US nor Israel will embark on attacking the Iranian nuclear facilities in 2012. I tend to agree. Neither the US nor Israel will initiate an attack on Iran. Still, I believe that these experts were off by a million miles.
Iran, just like Nazi Germany in the 1940’s, will take the initiative and “help” the US president and the American public make up their mind by making the first move, by attacking a US aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf, trying to sink it.
The Iranian attack on an American ship will serve as a justification and a pretext for a retaliatory move by the US military against the Iranian regime. The target at that time would not be Iran’s nuclear facilities. These would turn out to be an addendum. The US would retaliate by attacking Iran’s navy, their military installations, missile silos, airfields. The US would target Iran’s ability to retaliate, to close down the straits of Hormuz. The US would then follow by targeting the regime itself.
Elimination of Iran’s nuclear facilities? Yes. This part would turn out to be the final act, the grand prize. It might have been the major target had the US initiated the attack. However under this “Pearl Harbor” scenario, where Iran had launched a “surprise” attack on the US navy, the US would have the perfect rationalization to get it done right, to put an end to this ugly game.
Unlike the latest Iranian people’s attempt at revolution, this time the US would not stay away, rather, it would go public, openly calling for the Iranian people to join in with the US in working to overthrow the corrupt Islamic fundamentalist regime. And the Iranian people would respond in numbers.
Spring would reemerge, and the Iranian people would join the rest of the Middle East—this time with the direct support of the US.
The greatest irony behind this most significant episode in 2012 is that the Iranian regime would effect their own demise. Attacking the US navy in the open seas is equivalent to carrying out a suicide bombing.
The Iranian government has become bolder by the day. Their hubris has been mounting as a result of the world’s inability to bring to an end their quest for nuclear weapons. If the Revolutionary Guards achieve that final step, and demonstrate their nuclear capability, their bullying conduct would swell beyond their geographic region. It would grow to be catastrophic. The responsible world understands that the Ayatollah must be stopped, but the US, the EU, Israel are in no mood to instigate a military confrontation for fear of its negative economic impact due to a potential closing of the straits of Hormuz and one more bloody war engulfing Israel and its neighbors.
Iran’s mullahs understand the world’s anxiety and its lack of resolve when it comes to confront them militarily. The Iranian government is blinded by its own ability to intimidate, to call the shots, to ignore warnings. What the Iranians fail to realize is that some of the lines they are about to cross are red—bloody red.
2012 will see to a new war. This time, Iran will initiate it. This time the US will respond. This time the Iranian regime will bring about its own demise. This time the Iranian Spring will bear fruits.
This time the Iranian nuclear cloud will evaporate before it rains down on the infidels.
_ It’s April 1st, 2012.
Vital, undisputed intelligence have been pointing to the sorry reality that Iran is merely two-months away from having assembled a nuclear bomb. US presidential elections are only seven months away. If Iran is left unchallenged and becomes a nuclear power, Obama and the democrats will go down in history as the great cowards who let it come to pass. The Republicans will make sure of that before winning the race to the White House.
Not to be concerned. Obama is motivated and so is his team. The Israeli government is ready. Let’s go!
The Iranians have amassed most of their air defenses all around their nuclear installations. Their early warning systems have also been geared toward alarming in the event of an approaching attack on these sites. Hezbollah and Hamas are on a standby mode. Just in case, they would retaliate with a non-stop missile barrage on all major Israeli cities, including Jerusalem. So what if some Palestinian Arabs become martyrs? It’s good for moral…
The buzz is in the air since the US has moved one more aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf. The price of oil has skyrocketed already. Russia and the rest of the oil exporting countries are laughing their way to the banks.
It’s D-Day. A pre-dawn coordinated attack by US and Israeli forces has just been launched. But wait... Iranian nuclear sites are left untouched. Where are they hitting?
The reports are sneaking back in to Jerusalem and to the Pentagon. The Iranian navy has been sunk; the Iranian long range missiles have been destroyed on the ground; the Iranian air force and airfields have been damaged beyond repair. The mullahs and their Revolutionary Guards have lost their ability to retaliate. The straits of Hormuz will remain open to oil traffic; however, no container ships are ready to set sail as of yet.
In midday, Hezbollah and Hamas launch rocket attacks on Israeli cities, and the Israeli air force is busy taking them out; Lebanon’s infrastructure is merely devastated. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are crying foul; they want the Israelis to stop while they keep carrying their rocket attacks. Israeli reserves are called in. They are amassed along the Lebanese, the Golan Heights and along the Gaza border with Israel. It’s still quiet along the Israeli-Syrian border, but it could turn ugly at any moment.
It’s leadership day. Iranian command and control, Revolutionary Guards headquarters and training camps including major outposts, as well as top political and military leadership—are all targeted. It’s a slow but crucial day. On the Israeli front, rocket fire continues; Israeli air and ground forces continue their push; Israeli citizens bear severe consequences, but the attacking Arabs are the ones calling for the UN and Russia to intervene.
Finally, Iranian nuclear sites are in the crosshair of US command. Iranian air defenses in and around these sites are being disabled by American stealth bombers and cruise missiles. At the same time bunker buster bombs are hitting the underground nuclear facilities. Massive explosions can be heard many miles away.
The Israeli air force is on the go over Lebanon and Gaza. Israeli tanks and armored vehicles cross into both territories. Tel Aviv, Haifa and the rest of Israel are under rocket attacks, but no missiles are getting off from Iran itself.
Missiles, air and ground war keep going. Gaza is surrounded and is under siege. The Hamas leadership is nowhere to be seen. Hezbollah has been successful in launching a single long range missile that was intercepted in midair. Hezbollah bases in Southern Lebanon have been run over by Israeli military.
Iranians are crowding the streets in Teheran. The Iranian Spring is on its way. Rocket fire from Gaza has been diminishing considerably. Egypt intervenes diplomatically, trying to arrange for a seize fire. The Gaza strip is cut in half and the Southern Philadelphia corridor has been taken over by the Israeli military. The Israeli Military has been seen in the outskirts of Gaza. Rocket fire from Lebanon is still significant.
Russia has been quiet all throughout the campaign. It has enjoyed the resulted high price of oil, then why hurry? However, the end is near, and Iran will survive. Russia needs this weighty trade partner. Time has come for some blaring rhetoric. The UN has been working hard to impose a cease fire between Israel and Hezbollah. Efforts are underway and it looks like a day or two before final signatures.
It’s relatively quiet along the Israeli borders. A cease fire has been arranged between all warring parties in Israel’s vicinity. Iran is embroiled in a full scale uprising. It looks and sounds like a civil war. The nuclear cloud has been whited out; the Revolutionary Guards have been demoralized; the Iranian nation has been trying to reap the fruits of freedom, taking it away from the dictatorship of the religious militants.
The sun still rises in the East. It’s a new spring day. Life will be beautiful one day soon.